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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2017-09-06T12:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2017-09-06T12:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/13013/-1
CME Note: Associated with X9.3 flare from AR 12673.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2017-09-07T22:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0
Dst min. in nT: -142
Dst min. time: 2017-09-08T02:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-09-08T10:42Z
Prediction Method: SPM
Prediction Method Note:

SPM Model Input Parameters:
Date-time:   2017-09-06 12:24
Initial Shock Speed:  1600 km/s
Background Solar Wind Speed: 500 km/s
Duration Time: 0.28 hrs

Output Results: The shock will arrive at the Earth at 2017-09-08T10:41:52; The total transit time of the shock is 46.3 hrs, and the shock's propagation speed at the Earth is 813 km/s.

Lead Time: 6.58 hour(s)
Difference: -12.20 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Xinhua Zhao (NSSC CAS) on 2017-09-07T15:55Z

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